{ "as_of": "2026-09-22", "start": "2025-09-23", "generated_at": "2026-09-23T01:15:32.216321+00:00", "full_original_model_accuracy": null, "full_original_model_status": "原看板没有固定历史信号；完整指标的当时可用数据缺失，无法给出原模型的一年准确率。", "rules": { "version": "2026-09-23-v1", "status": "newly_formalized_exploratory_rules_not_original_live_forecasts", "window": { "entry_start": "2025-09-23", "last_complete_day": "2026-09-22", "horizons": [ 5, 10, 20 ] }, "fundamental_votes": { "inventory": "33-city inventory: two consecutive weekly declines +1, two consecutive rises -1, otherwise 0", "supply": "negative sign of 37-mill HC capacity-utilization change across two consecutive weeks", "demand": "welded-pipe operating-rate YoY and equal-mean AC/fridge/washer YoY: both positive +1, both negative -1, otherwise 0", "raw_cost": "sign of ten-session change in ore/coke cost proxy, same I/J delivery month throughout lookback, positive +1 and negative -1" }, "combination": { "bullish_score_at_least": 2, "bearish_score_at_most": -2, "otherwise": "abstain", "missing_required_factor": "abstain" }, "price_only_control": "HC ten-session momentum and ten-session ore/coke cost change must agree; +/+ bullish, -/- bearish, otherwise abstain", "publication_assumptions": { "weekly_period": "ordinal week mapped to ISO-week Friday (original calendar not available)", "weekly_available_after_days": 14, "weekly_sensitivity_days": [ 7, 14, 21, 28 ], "weekly_max_age_after_available_days": 28, "monthly_available": "first day of month two months after observation month", "monthly_max_age_after_available_days": 62, "warning": "original publication timestamps, source export and revision vintages unavailable; assumed delays do not establish point-in-time validity" }, "selection": { "HC": "highest signal-day open interest among fetched HC01/05/10 contracts with positive volume, at least 45 calendar days to delivery-month start and same-contract close ten sessions earlier", "ore_coke": "highest signal-day I open interest among common I/J 01/05/09 contracts, positive I/J volume, same delivery month, at least 45 calendar days to delivery-month start, same contracts ten sessions earlier", "decision": "after previous trading day close", "entry": "next trading-day open", "exit": "same HC contract close on holding-session N; no synthetic continuous-contract rollover in returns" }, "accuracy": "directional signals only; strict positive signed open-to-exit-close change is correct; unchanged price is a miss; abstentions excluded from accuracy and disclosed in coverage", "primary_sampling": "fixed non-overlapping holding blocks anchored at entry_start, separately for each horizon; do not shift blocks to replace abstentions", "secondary_sampling": "every-session overlapping forecasts, shown separately and not treated as independent trials", "benchmarks": "always up, always down and same-contract ten-session momentum, all on identical scored directional samples", "cost_assumptions": { 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