{
  "version": "2026-09-23-v1",
  "status": "newly_formalized_exploratory_rules_not_original_live_forecasts",
  "window": {
    "entry_start": "2025-09-23",
    "last_complete_day": "2026-09-22",
    "horizons": [
      5,
      10,
      20
    ]
  },
  "fundamental_votes": {
    "inventory": "33-city inventory: two consecutive weekly declines +1, two consecutive rises -1, otherwise 0",
    "supply": "negative sign of 37-mill HC capacity-utilization change across two consecutive weeks",
    "demand": "welded-pipe operating-rate YoY and equal-mean AC/fridge/washer YoY: both positive +1, both negative -1, otherwise 0",
    "raw_cost": "sign of ten-session change in ore/coke cost proxy, same I/J delivery month throughout lookback, positive +1 and negative -1"
  },
  "combination": {
    "bullish_score_at_least": 2,
    "bearish_score_at_most": -2,
    "otherwise": "abstain",
    "missing_required_factor": "abstain"
  },
  "price_only_control": "HC ten-session momentum and ten-session ore/coke cost change must agree; +/+ bullish, -/- bearish, otherwise abstain",
  "publication_assumptions": {
    "weekly_period": "ordinal week mapped to ISO-week Friday (original calendar not available)",
    "weekly_available_after_days": 14,
    "weekly_sensitivity_days": [
      7,
      14,
      21,
      28
    ],
    "weekly_max_age_after_available_days": 28,
    "monthly_available": "first day of month two months after observation month",
    "monthly_max_age_after_available_days": 62,
    "warning": "original publication timestamps, source export and revision vintages unavailable; assumed delays do not establish point-in-time validity"
  },
  "selection": {
    "HC": "highest signal-day open interest among fetched HC01/05/10 contracts with positive volume, at least 45 calendar days to delivery-month start and same-contract close ten sessions earlier",
    "ore_coke": "highest signal-day I open interest among common I/J 01/05/09 contracts, positive I/J volume, same delivery month, at least 45 calendar days to delivery-month start, same contracts ten sessions earlier",
    "decision": "after previous trading day close",
    "entry": "next trading-day open",
    "exit": "same HC contract close on holding-session N; no synthetic continuous-contract rollover in returns"
  },
  "accuracy": "directional signals only; strict positive signed open-to-exit-close change is correct; unchanged price is a miss; abstentions excluded from accuracy and disclosed in coverage",
  "primary_sampling": "fixed non-overlapping holding blocks anchored at entry_start, separately for each horizon; do not shift blocks to replace abstentions",
  "secondary_sampling": "every-session overlapping forecasts, shown separately and not treated as independent trials",
  "benchmarks": "always up, always down and same-contract ten-session momentum, all on identical scored directional samples",
  "cost_assumptions": {
    "slippage_yuan_per_ton_per_side": 2,
    "fee_fraction_per_side": 0.0001
  },
  "cost_warning": "illustrative costed PnL per tonne only, no leverage, collateral or execution guarantee; drawdown uses non-overlapping exited trades and does not measure intraday loss",
  "excluded_from_full_model": [
    "dated spot basis",
    "plant inventory",
    "orders and transaction volume",
    "maintenance plans",
    "historical member positions",
    "scrap-price history",
    "macro releases and policy events"
  ],
  "tuning": "No parameter fitting or post-result threshold optimization; lag variants are sensitivity checks, not model selection."
}